The Impact of Cigarette Price Increases on the Prevalence of Daily Smoking and Initiation in Brazil

This Report was written by Fiona Franco-Churruarin and Martin Gonzalez-Rozada. The report examines the determinants of daily smoking prevalence and smoking initiation in Brazil. 10.42% of Brazilians are daily smokers, and this prevalence is higher among men and the low-income group. The authors estimate that the daily smoking prevalence elasticity is -0.264 which suggests that a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes would reduce daily smoking prevalence by 2.6%. Occasional smoking prevalence, on the other hand, is not responsive to price. This price increase would also delay smoking initiation by 35%, or almost 2.5 years. The report concludes that increasing the price of cigarettes through excise tax policies would reduce daily smoking and effectively delay smoking initiation in Brazil.

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A Policy Brief based on the report can be found here.