Technical Note on Estimated Impact of Alcohol Tax Reform in Brazil

This Technical Note was written by the Economics for Health team. The technical note outlines the methodology used to estimate the impact of raising the price of beer on public health in Brazil, including the models, key assumptions, and data sources. The UCB Alcohol Tax Simulator compares the outcomes under the current tax structure with potential outcomes under various tax reform scenarios which a new dual VAT and a selective alcohol tax. Simulating an increase of R$ 1 per can, the model estimates that this would reduce beer consumption 18%. Furthermore, if a similar tax reform was applied across all alcoholic beverages, total alcohol consumption would decrease 20% and prevent over 10,000 alcohol-related deaths. A larger price increase is needed to reach Brazil's reduction goal for alcohol consumption outlined in Plano de DANT 2021–2030. The technical note concludes with recommendations for policy makers to utilize these simulations to effectively reduce alcohol consumption under the new tax reform. 

[PORTUGUESE]