Modelling the Impacts of Tobacco Tax Increases in Slovakia: A Simulation Model (Policy Brief)

This Policy Brief was written by Institute of Economic Research SAS in Slovakia. The policy brief assesses and compares the impact of two tobacco tax increase scenarios from 2023 to 2028. The first scenario aligns with the current excise calendar, which increases the excise on 1,000 cigarettes by EUR 28.9 increase in 6 years, while the second is more ambitious, raising the excise on 1,000 cigarettes by EUR 53.5 in that time frame. The researchers find that excise tax revenues would grow by 32.8% by 2028 under the second scenario, compared to a lower rate of 26.6% under the first scenario. Adult smoking prevalence, on the other hand, would decrease by 16.4% by 2028 under the second, accelerated scenario, compared to 11.5% under the current excise calendar. Similarly, youth prevalence would decrease by 33.1% as 48,900 youth would not initiate smoking, under the second scenario. As a result, the accelerated calendar would result in 35,211 fewer premature tobacco-related adult deaths and 19,560 fewer youth deaths, compared to 24,388 and 13,543 under the current system, respectively. The policy brief concludes with recommendations for policy makers to accelerate tobacco tax increases and reap the associated fiscal and health benefits.

A corresponding Report can be found here.